US Newsprint Demand Forecasts to 2020
نویسندگان
چکیده
The paper provides projections for US newsprint demand up to 2020. First, various specifications of the standard model used in forest product demand literature, which we call the classical model, were estimated using annual data from 1971–2000. The results indicated that structural change in the newsprint consumption pattern took place at the end of the 1980s. The classical model fails to explain and forecast the structural change. This finding motivated the formulation of alternative models. Thus, a Bayesian model that allows industry experts’ prior knowledge about the future demand for newsprint to be included in the projections was estimated. Also, an ad hoc model, in which newsprint demand is a function of changes in newspaper circulation, was used to compute projections. Finally, the forecasts of these models are evaluated along with some of the existing projections. Besides providing an outlook for US newsprint demand, the study contributes to the existing literature of long-term forest product demand by raising some methodological questions and by applying new models to compute projections.
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